Donald Trump wants a victory lap. This weekend was already packed. The World Cup returns to US soil on Friday, a legacy of his first term. On Sunday, he turns 80. He’ll celebrate at a White House UFC fight night surrounded by screaming fans. Then, it’s off to the French Alps for a G7 summit to face foreign leaders he’s been badgering for months.
But the real show is Iran. On Thursday, Trump raised the stakes, claiming a deal to end the three-month-old war could happen this weekend. It’s a messy, unpopular conflict. Oil markets are spooked. Trump is already sending Vice President JD Vance to play pen-holder at the signing ceremony.
We’ve heard this before. Trump loves to tease a breakthrough that never quite lands. Yet, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi chimed in on social media, claiming a deal has “never been closer.” Details? None. It is still a waiting game.
Trump thinks his bullying worked. He threatened to flatten Iran’s oil infrastructure and seize Kharg Island. This came after a week of retaliatory airstrikes that shredded April’s fragile ceasefire. “They’ve taken a pounding,” Trump bragged to reporters in the Oval Office. He insists they want the deal more than he does.
The details are murky. Trump claims Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei—unseen since reportedly being wounded on day one of the war—is ready to sign. But the peace is fragile. By Friday, Trump was already back on social media, screaming at Tehran to “get their act together, and FAST!”
What’s actually on the table? The White House is whispering about total nuclear disarmament. Iran’s nuclear material must be shipped out or destroyed. In exchange, Tehran gets sanctions relief. But Vance warned that the economic goodies only flow if Iran behaves. “The president is going to get us a good outcome,” Vance posted. We shall see.
It is a high-stakes bluff. Trump’s threats of military escalation were designed to appease his hawkish base. He wanted to show he plays hardball. But he is also squeamish. Just hours after threatening to put boots on Kharg Island, he went on Fox News to ask if Americans really have the “stomach” for body bags. Then he canceled the strikes.
While Trump blustered, backchannel diplomats from Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar did the actual heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Iran changed the rules. Last weekend, they launched direct strikes on Israel after Israeli forces hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. The message was clear: hit our allies, and we hit back. The cost of defending Israel just went up for Washington. Trump wants out. But he wants to look like a conqueror while doing it. Those two goals do not mix.
Trump is frustrated. He claims he already won. Most of Iran’s military brass is dead. Their navy is in ruins. Yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains choked, blocking a fifth of the world’s oil. Iran still hasn’t agreed to restart nuclear talks—the very reason Trump started this fight. Trump blames the press. He complained that even if Iran waved a white flag, the “fake news” would call it an Iranian victory.
Congress is getting restless. Representative Michael McCaul thinks Iran is stalling to drag the war into the November midterms. Next week, the conflict dominates the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains. Trump has spent months trashing European allies like Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron for not funding his war. They are furious he dragged them into an economic mess without asking. Trump hopes to silence them with a signed paper before he lands. “The strait will officially open,” he promised. Don’t hold your breath.
